Future of MySQL

The acquisition of Sun by Oracle serious questions about the future of MySQL, a popular open source database system that Sun acquired last year. It's not clear if Oracle will see any incentive to continuing development of an open source alternative to its core database offerings. There are several factors, however, that would make it difficult for Oracle to kill off MySQL—and it could be profitable to continue investing in the system's advancement.

MySQL is already somewhat fragmented and there are several branches and forks that deliver enough unique value to be profitable independently. This makes it seem unlikely that any one player will be able to retain centralized control of the software or unilaterally terminate its forward progress.

Another factor is the efficacy of certain alternatives—such as PostgreSQL—which existing MySQL users could choose to adopt if MySQL ever seriously stumbled. It's clear that there is a signficant market for open source database software, and it's a niche that someone will inevitably find a way to fill. This means that Oracle would gain little from killing off MySQL.

A point that a lot of commentators seem to be overlooking is Oracle's 2005 acquisition of Innobase, a company that developed a popular ACID-compliant storage engine for MySQL. Oracle sells Innobase's InnoDB product, which is dual-licensed and available under the GPL or commercial terms. Now that Oracle has MySQL, the company can offer commercial licenses for both the database and the InnoDB storage engine together.

Oracle has no means of stopping open source software from cannibalizing its proprietary database market, so the company has likely decided that it might as well profit from the trend. Oracle could also potentially view this as an opportunity to upsell some existing MySQL customers and transition them over to its proprietary products. Oracle will likely build software to facilitate a clean glide path for customers who wish to pursue such a migration.